Politics after the Government Shutdown

Conventional wisdom tells us that Congress has kicked the can down the road. We will be continuing government by crisis in a few weeks. Nothing has changed, and those willing to shut the government down and default on our debt will be just as willing or even more willing to do so in a few weeks.

We are also told that Republicans are frightened about being primaried on their right. They will go along with damaging tactics for fear of losing their seats in Congress. Already challenges are being posed to Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for his role in averting default. Other moderate Republicans are in the cross hairs as well.

Let me suggest that circumstances might not be so dire. First I have to say that one reason for the continuing gloom and doom comes from the 24 hour cable news cycle. Hyping the crisis as much as possible gives them something to talk about and keep us entertained.

This is not to say that serious difficulties do not remain. Yet, it is unlikely that Republicans want to go through the disaster of the last few weeks again so soon. Even the staunchest Tea Party Republicans such as Senator Ted Cruz are likely to proceed in a different fashion. They will go to their base, talk about how they stood up to Obama Care and would have won if others had supported them.`Even if they were to try to shut down the government again Republican leaders would simply not allow it this time.

It is true, however, that the can has been kicked down the road, so what does Congress do? The joint congressional committee is being chaired by Senator Patty Murray, and Congressman Paul Ryan. The first thing they should not do is seek some grand bargain. It's not in the cards at this time. Their goal should be to keep the government open until after the 2014 Congressional elections.

If Patty Murray says Democrats will never agree to this provision - take it off the table. If Paul Ryan says the House of Representatives will never pass this idea - drop it. Find common ground on a few things. Fix the worst aspects of the sequester. Insist that Republicans go along with some small measures for enhancing revenues. Push Democrats to accept reasonable changes to entitlements such as the chained CPI already offered by President Obama. Maybe even make a few minor changes to The Affordable Care Act that will actually strengthen it rather than damage it. Pass the budget, keep the government operating, and declare victory.

Assuming all that happens, and I'm counting on it, what happens with the 2014 election? Can Democrats win back the House of Representatives? If Republicans did shut down the government again in January and default on the debt in February I believe Republicans would lose their majority in the House of Representatives. Since I don't believe that will happen, it means that favorable ratings for Republicans will rise since they can't go down any further. Many Republicans will hold on to their seats especially because of the extreme gerrymandering of Congressional districts. As an aside, responsibility for drawing these districts must be given to independent commissions in every state.

I do believe Democrats can make some inroads into Republican numbers in the house. If they target certain districts where the message of the irresponsibility of Republican Congressmen can resonate they may pick up as many as 10 seats. In addition, with the help of business leaders demanding more reasonable governing, more moderate Republicans can be prevented from losing their seats and more conservative primary candidates can be defeated. There is the potential to wind up with a somewhat more moderate House of Representatives in the 2015 Congress.The Senate is likely to remain in Democratic hands.

It's a long time until the election and conditions can change quickly.. However, as damaging as the last few weeks have been to government, I believe there are some real opportunities here. People have come to see government as more important in their lives than Republican rhetoric had led them to believe. Despite the dismal launch of Obama Care, its favorable ratings actually rose during the shutdown. If problems can be speedily corrected it could become a permanent fixture of our lives along with social security and medicare..

While the Tea Party will continue to engage in heated rhetoric and obstructionist efforts, I believe reasonable Republicans have had enough. We need two responsible political parties in Washington. We may just be a little closer to that goal after the debacle of the last few weeks.