November Election Results highlight problems for Democrats and the Tea Party

Perhaps only establishment Republicans can feel a little bit positive about the recently concluded November elections. First of all, Governor Chris Christie won reelection by a wide margin in New Jersey. He amassed a coalition which included a surprising number of Democrats, Blacks, and Latinos. He is now the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President in 2016.

Although many say conservatives will not select him because of his moderate stance on some issues, I'm not convinced. The history of the Republican party has been that they always wind up selecting the individual they see as the most electable candidate. Also, Governor Christie is a true conservative on just about every issue. Just as he has charmed the voters in New Jersey, he will likely charm all but the most recalcitrant tea party members as well. He will indeed be a formidable opponent for Hilary Clinton if she becomes the Democratic nominee. The only caveat may be if he has to position himself too far to the right of mainstream voters in order to win the nomination.

A second victory for mainstream Republicans on November 5th, was in a GOP runoff election to fill a congressional seat in Alabama. Bradley Byrne defeated tea party candidate Dean Young with the help of establishment Republicans. Those who had been financing tea party candidates are now actively seeking their defeat and were successful in this race. The government shutdown has soured the business community on extreme tea party tactics, and this could bode ill for tea party efforts in 2014.

The government shutdown was also a major factor in the election of Democrat Terry McAauliffe to the governor's office in Virginia. Republican candidate Ken Cucinelli's extreme views on a number of women's issues were also factors. McAuliffe was considered a weak candidate but Cuccinelli was unable to secure the win in what was seen as a very winnable election. Again, the party's establishment failed to provide support, and the changing demographics of the state, especially in Northern Virginia worked against him.

Democrats have little to crow about however. The race closed in the days leading up to the election, almost certainly because of the failures of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). A race that some polls had ending in a double digit vistory for McAuliffe wound up in a 2 1/2 point nail biter.

The only positive factor for Democrats is if they can fix the problems plaguing the ACA website this obstabcle will go away. Unfortunately for Republicans, they cannot change the facts of the government shutdown, which is likely to have staying power as an issue throughout the 2014 elections.

It is tricky to derive too much from an off year election, but a few things can be gleaned with some confidence. First of all there seems to be a message for the tea party. Their extremism is not appreciated by the Republican establishment. A decision to shut down the government regardless of possible damage to the overall economy proved to be unacceptable to Republican businessmen and those bankrolling Republican candidates. With the election of Governor Christie who is now in many ways the head of the Republican Party we may see a very different party emerge by the time we reach the 2016 presidential elections. If he wins the nomination, he will be the one deciding what the party's agenda will be. If tea party candidates do poorly in the congressional elections, that will likely propel Christie to the nomination.

As for Democrats, ACA is pretty much the whole ballgame. They have a couple of months to get this right. Step one is fixing the website and ensuring that it will work for all Americans. Second, they have to demonstrate that the law is a good deal for just about everyone. They have to make the case that ACA will benefit the vast majority of Americans. If they can achieve these goals they may be in solid shape for the campaigns ahead. If not, we could be looking at a veritable sea change in the elections to come..

                                              Politics after the Government Shutdown

Conventional wisdom tells us that Congress has kicked the can down the road. We will be continuing government by crisis in a few weeks. Nothing has changed, and those willing to shut the government down and default on our debt will be just as willing or even more willing to do so in a few weeks.

We are also told that Republicans are frightened about being primaried on their right. They will go along with damaging tactics for fear of losing their seats in Congress. Already challenges are being posed to Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky for his role in averting default. Other moderate Republicans are in the cross hairs as well.

Let me suggest that circumstances might not be so dire. First I have to say that one reason for the continuing gloom and doom comes from the 24 hour cable news cycle. Hyping the crisis as much as possible gives them something to talk about and keep us entertained.

This is not to say that serious difficulties do not remain. Yet, it is unlikely that Republicans want to go through the disaster of the last few weeks again so soon. Even the staunchest Tea Party Republicans such as Senator Ted Cruz are likely to proceed in a different fashion. They will go to their base, talk about how they stood up to Obama Care and would have won if others had supported them.`Even if they were to try to shut down the government again Republican leaders would simply not allow it this time.

It is true, however, that the can has been kicked down the road, so what does Congress do? The joint congressional committee is being chaired by Senator Patty Murray, and Congressman Paul Ryan. The first thing they should not do is seek some grand bargain. It's not in the cards at this time. Their goal should be to keep the government open until after the 2014 Congressional elections.

If Patty Murray says Democrats will never agree to this provision - take it off the table. If Paul Ryan says the House of Representatives will never pass this idea - drop it. Find common ground on a few things. Fix the worst aspects of the sequester. Insist that Republicans go along with some small measures for enhancing revenues. Push Democrats to accept reasonable changes to entitlements such as the chained CPI already offered by President Obama. Maybe even make a few minor changes to The Affordable Care Act that will actually strengthen it rather than damage it. Pass the budget, keep the government operating, and declare victory.

Assuming all that happens, and I'm counting on it, what happens with the 2014 election? Can Democrats win back the House of Representatives? If Republicans did shut down the government again in January and default on the debt in February I believe Republicans would lose their majority in the House of Representatives. Since I don't believe that will happen, it means that favorable ratings for Republicans will rise since they can't go down any further. Many Republicans will hold on to their seats especially because of the extreme gerrymandering of Congressional districts. As an aside, responsibility for drawing these districts must be given to independent commissions in every state.

I do believe Democrats can make some inroads into Republican numbers in the house. If they target certain districts where the message of the irresponsibility of Republican Congressmen can resonate they may pick up as many as 10 seats. In addition, with the help of business leaders demanding more reasonable governing, more moderate Republicans can be prevented from losing their seats and more conservative primary candidates can be defeated. There is the potential to wind up with a somewhat more moderate House of Representatives in the 2015 Congress.The Senate is likely to remain in Democratic hands.

It's a long time until the election and conditions can change quickly.. However, as damaging as the last few weeks have been to government, I believe there are some real opportunities here. People have come to see government as more important in their lives than Republican rhetoric had led them to believe. Despite the dismal launch of Obama Care, its favorable ratings actually rose during the shutdown. If problems can be speedily corrected it could become a permanent fixture of our lives along with social security and medicare..

While the Tea Party will continue to engage in heated rhetoric and obstructionist efforts, I believe reasonable Republicans have had enough. We need two responsible political parties in Washington. We may just be a little closer to that goal after the debacle of the last few weeks.   

A Government Shutdown Tutorial

1.Why is the government still shut down?
     * Because Republicans still believe they can win

2. What do they want?
      * They want to overturn issues that have already been settled by the democratic process -
         like the Affordable Care Act

3. Why won't Democrats negotiate?
       * Democrats say they won't negotiate 'with a gun pointed at their heads'. Tea Party Republicans
          are indeed holding the government hostage. It would be like saying that they will not let the
          government operate unless they stop sending out Social Security checks. Is this a  legitimate
          subject for negotiation, or should it be decided by elections, the courts, and the legislative process?          

4.  How can this stand off end?
          * There are only two possibilities. Republicans pass a clean continuing resolution (CR) or Democrats
             give in to their demands 

5. Why is it so dangerous to negotiate at this time?
          * It represents government by crisis - resolving this crisis simply puts it off until the next crisis. The
             CR's are only designed to last for a short while - maybe 2 or 3 months. The debt ceiling will only be
             extended for maybe six months. The same battles then begin all over again. The correct process
             is the normal budget process. Both houses of Congress have passed budget bills - that is the
             appropriate vehicle for negotiation

6. Republicans say they will open little pieces of the government - why not go along?
            * This is an arrogant and insidious ploy to choose between different government workers and
               different agencies of government. This small group of legislators will decide who is important and
               who is not. They are not only opting for a government by a minority, their way would actually
               introduce a new form of dictatorship where this elite group of legislators will make the
               rules for everyone. The desires of the majority would be disregarded. What they are doing is
               turning the Constitution on its head.

 7. What is being accomplished by the government shutdown?
            * Nothing. The Congress is already agreeing to provide back pay to all employees currently
               furloughed. While they remain at home they are providing no services to our country or to
               the people

8. Why not send these people back to work so they can at least earn their pay?
            * That would end the fight that the Republicans seem to want to have. Refer back to question 1.

9. How can these Republicans care so llittle about their country and the damage that is being done to the
    American people? How can they continue to allow this to happen over and over again?
            * I can't answer that question

10. What can I and others do?
            * Demand action by Congress. Insist on a clean CR to fund the government long enough to
              negotiate their way out of a budget impasse. Demand the critical debt ceiling be raised and
              not held hostage to more political gamesmanship