November Election Results highlight problems for Democrats and the Tea Party

Perhaps only establishment Republicans can feel a little bit positive about the recently concluded November elections. First of all, Governor Chris Christie won reelection by a wide margin in New Jersey. He amassed a coalition which included a surprising number of Democrats, Blacks, and Latinos. He is now the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President in 2016.

Although many say conservatives will not select him because of his moderate stance on some issues, I'm not convinced. The history of the Republican party has been that they always wind up selecting the individual they see as the most electable candidate. Also, Governor Christie is a true conservative on just about every issue. Just as he has charmed the voters in New Jersey, he will likely charm all but the most recalcitrant tea party members as well. He will indeed be a formidable opponent for Hilary Clinton if she becomes the Democratic nominee. The only caveat may be if he has to position himself too far to the right of mainstream voters in order to win the nomination.

A second victory for mainstream Republicans on November 5th, was in a GOP runoff election to fill a congressional seat in Alabama. Bradley Byrne defeated tea party candidate Dean Young with the help of establishment Republicans. Those who had been financing tea party candidates are now actively seeking their defeat and were successful in this race. The government shutdown has soured the business community on extreme tea party tactics, and this could bode ill for tea party efforts in 2014.

The government shutdown was also a major factor in the election of Democrat Terry McAauliffe to the governor's office in Virginia. Republican candidate Ken Cucinelli's extreme views on a number of women's issues were also factors. McAuliffe was considered a weak candidate but Cuccinelli was unable to secure the win in what was seen as a very winnable election. Again, the party's establishment failed to provide support, and the changing demographics of the state, especially in Northern Virginia worked against him.

Democrats have little to crow about however. The race closed in the days leading up to the election, almost certainly because of the failures of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). A race that some polls had ending in a double digit vistory for McAuliffe wound up in a 2 1/2 point nail biter.

The only positive factor for Democrats is if they can fix the problems plaguing the ACA website this obstabcle will go away. Unfortunately for Republicans, they cannot change the facts of the government shutdown, which is likely to have staying power as an issue throughout the 2014 elections.

It is tricky to derive too much from an off year election, but a few things can be gleaned with some confidence. First of all there seems to be a message for the tea party. Their extremism is not appreciated by the Republican establishment. A decision to shut down the government regardless of possible damage to the overall economy proved to be unacceptable to Republican businessmen and those bankrolling Republican candidates. With the election of Governor Christie who is now in many ways the head of the Republican Party we may see a very different party emerge by the time we reach the 2016 presidential elections. If he wins the nomination, he will be the one deciding what the party's agenda will be. If tea party candidates do poorly in the congressional elections, that will likely propel Christie to the nomination.

As for Democrats, ACA is pretty much the whole ballgame. They have a couple of months to get this right. Step one is fixing the website and ensuring that it will work for all Americans. Second, they have to demonstrate that the law is a good deal for just about everyone. They have to make the case that ACA will benefit the vast majority of Americans. If they can achieve these goals they may be in solid shape for the campaigns ahead. If not, we could be looking at a veritable sea change in the elections to come..