Protests in Iran

Well, it appears to be all over but the shouting. Repressive force has won again, as it too often does. What are we to make of the recent events in Iran, and where if anywhere can we go from here? Did the protesters miscalculate? Was there ever any possibility of success? Has anything been gained by the bravery and sacrifices of those who took to the streets?

Certainly the lead up to the election was promising. It almost seemed as if democracy was breaking out in Tehran. People were speaking their minds and the government was permitting it and perhaps even encouraging it. As the election ended early reports suggested that reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi had won a great victory. No sooner had these reports surfaced than government reports announced that it was President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who had emerged victorious instead. In the space of a moment everything had changed.

Where was the regime in all of this. Did they also miscalculate the strength of Mousavi's candidacy? Were mixed signals the result of inner conflicts within the governing heirarchy? If they had no intention of permitting a change at the top why did they allow the election process to go forward unchecked?

The ensuing protests appeared to be a spontaneous outpouring of surprise and outrage at the turn of events. There was hope that the results could still somehow be turned around. The use of technology inspired excitement, and the media loved the story. Perhaps the regime doubted the importance of this outpouring from determined citizens who wanted and expected to have their voices heard, but not for long. International media was silenced quickly. Beatings, arrests, and humiliation of protesters followed. Protests dwindled in number and intensity. The brutality was too great to bear. The regime had won.

The endless battle about whether President Obama had said too much or too little seemed so academic. The truth is the United States had almost no impact on the events in Iran. Obama's Cairo speech had helped turn the election in Lebanon and had initially given hope to those seeking change in Iran, but fundamentally events in Iran were not influenced either pro or con by anything said in the United States. The real value of the Obama position was that it made it difficult for the Iranian leaders to blame the United States for interfering in their domestic affairs.

So what has Iran accomplished? They have demonstrated that might makes right. We have seen this occur too often in our world. The school yard bully beats up on the defenseless youngster. Politicians, even in our own country, use demagoguery to maintain the status quo. Repressive regimes control the statements and actions of their citizenry. We know the drill. It is not that hard to crush a rebellion.

There are however, some costs to doing so. The stature of this regime has dealt itself a major blow. They were unable to control their people with a call to nationalism, religion, or belief in the trustworthiness of the government. They had no choice but to resort to attacking their own citizens, forcing them to profess untruths in humiliating staged confessions, showing the worst side of the regime's determination to stay in power. I suspect that no other nation in the region can look on Iran now and see anything like nobility in their cause.

The people will never forget this moment either. The leadership itself seems to have been fractured. The people of Iran will never look on their government in quite the same way again. The notion that protesters themselves are guilty of conspiracy to kill Neda, the young woman martyred on the streets of Iran who became the rallying cry for protesters, is simply not credible. The notion that the regime can blame the United States and other western countries for fomenting unrest is not believeable. Twitter, Facebook, e-mails and cell phones have made such patently false declarations meaningless.

The government in Iran does not seem to care whether anyone believes them or not. They have determined that they will move forward as they choose, and in the short term they will succeed. The media's short attention span has run out on this story, and certainly the death of Michael Jackson has literally pushed every other story off the front burner. However, the seeds of change have sprouted among the people. By winning, the regime in Iran may well have lost. Change will come to Iran, and it will come because the people have willed it. We know not how long it will take, but the mullahs have themselves by desperately and ruthlessly clinging to power sealed the fate of their own regime.