Obama Closes the Deal

On September 28, after the first debate, I wrote that I believed Barack Obama was poised to win the election fairly comfortably. Nothing that happened at last night's town hall debate suggested anything different. There were no knock out blows. Both candidates handled themselves well, although overall it was pretty boring television. If anything, it was McCain who came up with a somewhat new idea in terms of buying up bad mortgages and renegotiating their terms. So, why is this election over?

The election basically ended when the market fell 500 additional points just before the second debate began. Obama didn't really do anything to advance his cause on Tuesday night, but like the good Doctor, he did no harm. He continuted to look presidential, his calm demeanor was reassuring to many voters, and he demonstrated a command of the issues. He had already passed the threshold of being seen as presidential in the first debate. Now it was up to the voters to decide which candidate they wanted to be their president.

The voters have decided, and I believe we may be looking at an oncoming landslide. Why, because the country is now ready for change. This country generally votes for change when things are not going well. This is why people have been wondering for months why Obama was not already farther ahead. Change is always scary, but when not changing becomes more scary than embracing change, it is pretty clear what will happen. I might just add, for those who are not yet reassured, I find reassurance in the team that is working with Obama. Just on the economy all the best minds have been tapped from Bob Rubin to Warren Buffet, from Robert Reich to Paul O'Neil. The same caliber of foreign policy team also appears ready to step up to the plate.

Let me certainly add a word of caution. There is no question that 28 days is more than a life time in a political campaign. Anything can happen. However, once all the cliches have been uttered, the question remains as to just what is it that can change the direction of this campaign? It becomes more and more difficult to see what that might be. The negative campaigning does not seem to be having the desired effect. At this point even a good economic plan won't save John McCain. He needs a miraculous and speedy turn around in the economy. All the forcasts are for at least nine months of continuing economic problems.

What about Sarah Palin's huge crowds in Florida and other states? Rest assured you will see huge crowds for the McCain/Palin ticket from now to election day. Notice that these crowds are for the most part in Republican strongholds, including Nebraska. No one can doubt that conservatives are energized and are greatly enamored of Governor Palin. However, I remember that in 1996 during the last several weeks of that campaign Bob Dole kept receiving larger and larger crowds. Many, perhaps including Senator Dole, believed that he must have been gaining on Bill Clinton. As it turned out it was probably a fond public farewell to a great old soldier rather than an endorsement of his candidacy. The current crowds may say something about Sarah Palin in 2012, but beyond that the country is about to embark on the Obama era.