Can McCain Come Back?

History would suggest that we will see a closing of this race in the last nineteen days. Some of the red states that seem to be turning blue will revert to traditional voting patterns. Those independents who usually vote Republican, but have been toying with the prospect of an Obama vote, will decide that they are more comfortable with McCain. Besides, John McCain gave his best debate performance last night. He was feisty and gave clear Republican arguments on taxes and the economy. He attacked and put Obama on the defensive. Obama seemed slightly off his game.

Yet post debate polls gave Obama the same clear victory he has shown in each of the previous debates. Voters did not seem to feel any better about John McCain after this debate than before. It seems that the character of this race has already jelled. What Obama gained in the first two debates in terms of being seen as presidential, more steady than McCain, and even more likeable are firmly in place. The image of John McCain as angry, negative, and attacking on irrelevant subjects has been established. Obama is out pointing McCain in areas that would never have been expected: leadership, coolness in a crisis, judgment, and even the right kind of experience.

Senator Obama was right twenty long months ago when he began his campaign. This election is about change, and that's what the American people are demanding. The problematic economy solidified this judgment, and a marginally better debate performance is not going to alter the fundamentals of the campaign. Although the discussion has changed, the American people have not forgotten Katrina, the Iraq War, secrecy, torture and the erosion of civil liberties; in short, the things that have given George Bush a 23% favorability rating. The country seems more than ready to turn the page.

Senator McCain, however, says that he is not George Bush, and that George Bush is not running. First thing this morning a new Obama add tackled that issue. It even replayed John McCain's own words in which he had previously said with pride that he had voted with George Bush 90% of the time, more than many other Republicans. This quick response highlights the other part of the mountain that John McCain needs to climb. He has neither the resources nor organization necessary to close this gap. These are areas where Republicans are normally quite strong. Clearly it was their ground game that beat John Kerry in 2004. Yet in state after state, including such red states as Virginia and North Carolina, it is Obama's strong primary campaigns that have given him boots on the ground to make these states competitive.

What does John McCain do, now? He keeps fighting. He keeps campaigning non-stop. When you are down 40-0 in the 4th quarter you can quit or you can keep fighting. Nobody thinks John McCain will quit. He likely will close the race somewhat. He needs to forget the score, and continue to move forward as if the score is tied. Does he continue to talk about Bill Ayers and Acorn? I don't think it matters. I believe those issues were essentially put to rest last night. They were laid on the table and Obama responded. You can argue that questions remain, but I believe at this point there is nothing much left to say on either side. If McCain or Palin choose to continue to hammer away at these issues, they will provide background noise and cheers from the base, but I think the rest of the electorate has moved on.

Finally, What does Barack Obama have to do? Can he still lose this race? Of course a serious gaffe by him or Joe Biden could have an effect. He could also be too cautious and try to sit on his lead. Also there is always the possibility that some outside cataclysmic event could change the dynamics of the campaign. I believe Obama,like McCain, needs to put on an energetic final push. He needs to travel from state to state talking to voters about his message of change. He then needs to activate his ground game, especially in marginal states, and continue to play like he's two points behind. He needs to make sure those young and newly registered voters find their way to the polls. Maybe McCain can catch up. I just can't come up with a scenario in which that seems to be a realistic possibility.