Winning the First Debate

I have been watching televised debates since Kennedy/Nixon in 1960. I do not believe there has ever been more intense interest in such a debate than there was Friday night. We had heard estimates of up to 100 million viewers. Viewers were treated to a heavyweight match. It was like a Super Bowl where the game was actually good. True, it started off slow, but if you stuck with it you were rewarded with a serious, intelligent handling of the issues by both candidates. In this sense, I believe you can say that the American people were winners in this first debate.

If there is a consensus at this point it seems to be that Obama came out slightly ahead, though both candidates performed quite well. McCain demonstrated a strong grasp of the issues and was aggressive and forceful. Obama demonstrated that he belonged on the stage with John McCain even in the area of foreign policy, and that in itself may have been enough to win the debate. Although some may interpret it differently, I think Obama also came out ahead on style points. McCain's apparent refusal to look at Obama or address him directly seemed awkward at best. Obama appeared more relaxed as the debate went on, and seemed more willing to engage directly with Senator McCain.

Let's talk a few specific points. I think both were disappointing on the economy. In fact the first 30 minutes was a chance to push the snooze button. Both reiterated points from their campaign speeches, and in fact may have been nervous in the early stages of the fight as they were feeling each other out. I think it was a missed opportunity for both of them. They had just rushed back to Washington for the all important bailout. Voters wanted to know what was going on, and what was each candidate doing about it. Neither delivered. We are all still waiting for someone to explain why this whole issue is important to 'Joe Six-pack'. Why should we care about this Wall-Street bailout? No one has delivered that message which is why they are having so much trouble getting a bill passed. Someone needs to explain that we understand and share your anger that this has happened, but we also need to understand the consequences for ordinary Americans of refusing to act.

That brings up a continuing problem for Barack Obama. He still has trouble stating his message in a way that connects with the American people. He doesn't do anecdotes well, and for the most part doesn't even try. The exchange about the two soldier's who died is a case in point. McCain told of the mother of a fallen soldier who gave her son's bracelet to him to wear and to ensure that her son had not died in vain. Obama responded well by talking about the bracelet he had received from a mother who wanted him to ensure that other mothers would not have to endure what she had. It was an effective rejoinder, however, while McCain's story was filled with emotion, Obama's seemed cold.

I thought the best line in the debate for Obama was when he turned to McCain and challenged him on the Iraq war. He said that McCain was wrong on weapons of mass destruction, our soldiers being greeted as liberators, etc. It was a strong and powerful message. John McCain's best line was probably when he said that Obama was so far to the left that it was hard to reach across the Senate aisle to work with him. He was also strong in talking about the need for spending cuts.

What happens now. I am boldly ready to make a prediction. I should preface this, however, by saying that my predictions are usually the kiss of death. They are often akin to being on the cover of Sport's Illustrated. Be that as it may, I believe that Senator Barack Obama is now poised to win this election. He has been slightly ahead for some time now. He met the threshold test in this debate of being seen as a potential commander in chief. I think a tie constitutes a win for Senator Obama. I believe many undecideds were unsure about Obama's readiness to be president. He has reassured many of them. It is certainly true that some major unforseen event could change the outcome of the election. The bailout plan could fail, or there could be some other October surprise; but barring that, I believe we will see a continuing drift in the polls toward Obama over the coming weeks, and a fairly convincing victory on November 4th.